Poor Man’s Super Linear Weights

11/27/2006 (Updated 12/12/06)

Matthew Rauseo

 

Introduction

A few years back Mitchel Lichtman one of the co-authors of “The Book” first published a metric of his design called Super Linear Weights (SLTWs).  The metric used play by play data purchased from Stats Inc. to calculate the value of a player’s batting, defensive, and base running contributions to a team.  Since then, Mitchel went to work for a ball club and was no longer able to publish SLWTS, which left us without a really good measure of a player’s contribution.  The stats that are available are flawed and not all encompassing.  Win Shares designed by Bill James and available at the Hardball Times website uses a useless defensive system, and no base running system.  VORP and WARP published by Baseball Prospectus are each flawed in different ways – VORP uses a ridiculous fictional baseline, has no base running system and only uses a positional adjustment for defense.  WARP, also uses a ridiculous fictional baseline, has no base running system and uses a useless defensive system. 

 

Luckily for us, with the advent of the Bill James Baseball Handbook, and various other sources we have the components available to us to calculate a Poor Man’s Super Linear Weights (PM-SLWTs).  I have not done any heavy lifting here.  Most of the real work was done, by Bill James, Lee Sinins, Chone Smith, and the good people at Baseball Info Solutions – I neither deserve nor want any credit for their work – they are the real sabrmetricians at work on this project, I’m just a book keeper. 

 

Sources

Batting:  RCAA – The Complete Baseball Encyclopedia published by Lee Sinins and available here: http://www.baseball-encyclopedia.com/ 

Fielding: Zone Projections – Published by Chone Smith and can found here: http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/

Base Running: Baseball Info Solutions – The Bill James Handbook 2007 and can be purchased at BN or Amazon

Position Adjustments: The data used can from the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia using 2000-2006 data and was calculated by me – the factors are based on 400 outs are:

 

1b:       -14

2b:       +6

SS:       +9

3b:       +2

CF:       +1

LF:       -9

RF:       -8

DH:      -20 (no calculation, intuitive based on other adjustments)

 

Notes

Before we get into the data, a few notes on some of the data.  There are a number of defensive systems available – I chose Chone Smiths for a couple of reasons.  1) It is zone based.  At the end of the day any system that is based on primary defensive data will be virtually useless as it is nearly impossible to estimate player’s opportunities from that data. Imagine trying to calculate batting average without, having a reasonable idea if a player had 600 At-Bats or 475 At-Bats.  While Zone data isn’t nearly perfect, and has a considerable amount of noise it is still the best that we have. 2) It incorporates outfield park factors, which play a large part in determining specific player values.  A major flaw in zone data is that it measures the distance of flyballs from home plate rather from outfield wall, so you can see players get charged with opportunities when balls are not actually playable (think Green Monster) this can create large distortions from reality.  3) It is regressed – while the idea of this project is to measure how many runs a player contributed relative to an average player during last season (2006), I believe that there is so much noise surrounding defensive statistics it is appropriate to be as conservative as possible so that you get the best estimate of how many runs a player contributed last year.  While I have no doubt that I using a regressed projection rather than last years specific stat will mean that we get less players exactly right, I believe your sample as a whole get more players approximately right.  Also outfielders don’t have an arm rating either.  Again that should be enhanced at some point in the future. On to Base Running, BIS provides data on bases gained.  I converted bases to runs assuming each base was worth 0.30 runs, which is based off traditional linear weight values, but perhaps may be a little high.  I will dive deeper into the base running numbers as time permits.

 

Purpose and Uses

The purpose of this project isn’t to reinvent the wheel; it is just to get a catch all tools to evaluate how players performed last year.  It isn’t meant to be used as a forecasting device as it only uses 1 year worth data rather than multiple year’s worth of data which is needed to make reasonably accurate projections.  I don’t believe it should be used as a device to determine MVP, as this is somewhat context neutral while MVP discussions should include the context of ones production.  I believe that these rankings give us a reasonably clearer idea of who was a better player least season.  For example, let’s compare two players – Josh Willingham and Mark Ellis. 

 

                      At Bats            OPS+             VORP

Josh                   502                121                 28

Mark                   441                  85                  7

 

It would be very tough from that line to determine that Ellis was a better player, yet when you look at the players PM-SWLTs it’s tough to ignore that conclusion as Ellis is better by more than 25 runs.  While I realize that these numbers are estimates, 25 runs is a very hard number to ignore. 

 

Legend

POS:  The players primary position as defined by the Complete Base Ball Encyclopedia

RCAA: Runs Created Above Average (Batting Runs)

POS – ADJ:  Position Adjustment

DEF: Defensive Runs

BASE RUN: Number of bases gained per Bill James handbook – and is converted to runs using 0.3 runs per base in the PM-SLWTS calculations.

PM-SLWTs: Poor Mans Super Linear Weights

PM-SLWTs/650: Poor Mans Super Linear Weights per 650 PA

 

Data

POS

Full

RCAA

Pos Adjustment

Defense

Base Running

PM-SLWTS

PM-SLWTS/650 PA

1B

Albert Pujols

76

-13.04

1

13

68

70

1B

Ryan Howard

82

-14.02

-4

-21

58

53

1B

Lance Berkman

64

-13.21

-4

-3

46

46

1B

Nick Johnson

45

-12.76

0

6

34

35

1B

Justin Morneau

42

-14.50

2

-3

29

28

1B

Todd Helton

24

-13.58

0

12

14

14

1B

Adam LaRoche

25

-12.63

-1

5

13

15

1B

Carlos Delgado

28

-13.85

-2

-5

11

11

1B

Nomar Garciaparra

15

-11.78

3

11

10

12

1B

Mark Teixeira

24

-16.13

3

-7

9

8

1B

Nick Swisher

23

-14.91

-1

5

9

8

1B

Paul Konerko

29

-14.40

-5

-14

5

5

1B

Lyle Overbay

19

-14.43

-1

-10

1

1

1B

Kevin Youkilis

12

-14.80

0

11

0

0

1B

Chris Shelton

2

-9.67

4

2

-3

-5

1B

Scott Hatteberg

6

-11.74

1

1

-4

-5

1B

Mike Lamb

5

-9.63

-4

11

-5

-8

1B

Adrian Gonzalez

16

-14.57

0

-24

-6

-6

1B

Doug Mientkiewicz

-1

-8.07

5

-8

-6

-12

1B

Kevin Millar

7

-11.23

-3

-14

-11

-15

1B

Richie Sexson

14

-15.55

-6

-19

-13

-13

1B

Mike Jacobs

0

-12.49

-1

-5

-15

-19

1B

Sean Casey

-9

-10.31

3

-1

-17

-25

1B

Craig Wilson

-6

-9.56

-2

3

-17

-27

1B

Prince Fielder

7

-15.04

-7

-6

-17

-17

1B

Conor Jackson

-1

-12.59

-1

-8

-17

-20

1B

Dan Johnson

-7

-7.83

1

-11

-17

-34

1B

Ty Wigginton

2

-11.57

-5

-11

-18

-24

1B

Jeff Conine

-10

-10.41

0

-6

-22

-33

1B

Travis Lee

-16

-9.43

2

-5

-25

-42

2B

Chase Utley

39

7.29

8

27

62

55

2B

Robinson Cano

21

5.31

0

-10

23

30

2B

Jose Valentin

7

4.60

11

1

23

34

2B

Dan Uggla

13

7.18

-3

12

21

20

2B

Ray Durham

18

5.79

-3

-1

20

24

2B

Aaron Hill

-10

6.38

15

13

15

16

2B

Brian Roberts

-1

6.73

4

13

14

14

2B

Mark Ellis

-12

5.48

12

24

13

16

2B

Chris Burke

0

4.29

6

7

12

20

2B

Jeff Kent

14

4.66

-4

-12

11

15

2B

Tadahito Iguchi

1

6.50

2

5

11

11

2B

Josh Barfield

-2

6.30

0

12

8

9

2B

Jamey Carroll

-6

5.53

5

11

8

10

2B

Orlando Hudson

-4

6.86

1

11

7

7

2B

Luis Castillo

-7

6.90

4

10

7

7

2B

Mark Grudzielanek

-14

6.29

9

15

6

6

2B

Ian Kinsler

0

5.03

-3

0

2

3

2B

Marcus Giles

-9

6.66

-2

16

0

0

2B

Placido Polanco

-17

5.48

10

4

0

0

2B

Adam Kennedy

-12

5.58

3

9

-1

-1

2B

Jose Lopez

-11

7.24

2

3

-1

-1

2B

Rickie Weeks

2

4.25

-15

9

-6

-10

2B

Mark Loretta

-15

7.38

-1

7

-7

-6

2B

Brandon Phillips

-16

6.47

3

-3

-7

-8

2B

Ron Belliard

-13

6.50

-3

4

-8

-9

2B

Jose Vidro

-5

5.39

-8

-6

-9

-12

2B

Craig Biggio

-20

6.80

-1

4

-13

-14

2B

Aaron Miles

-15

5.07

-1

-8

-13

-18

2B

Jorge Cantu

-21

5.14

-18

3

-33

-48

2B

Jose Castillo

-30

6.49

-15

5

-37

-43

3b

Miguel Cabrera

60

2.21

-8

2

55

53

3b

Chipper Jones

43

1.59

2

-5

45

61

3b

Garrett Atkins

42

2.35

0

-3

43

41

3b

Scott Rolen

25

2.10

8

11

38

42

3b

Alex Rodriguez

36

2.36

-4

4

36

34

3b

Freddy Sanchez

21

2.21

8

12

35

36

3b

David Wright

37

2.32

-8

8

34

33

3b

Morgan Ensberg

16

1.65

3

-1

20

27

3b

Aramis Ramirez

23

2.40

-7

0

18

18

3b

Rich Aurilia

9

1.75

5

3

17

23

3b

Scott Spiezio

14

1.11

-1

2

15

30

3b

Ryan Zimmerman

9

2.52

0

7

14

13

3b

Mark Teahen

15

1.56

-12

22

11

17

3b

Nick Punto

-4

1.92

8

7

8

10

3b

Eric Chavez

1

2.12

6

-6

7

8

3b

Brandon Inge

-6

2.32

10

-2

6

6

3b

Maicer Izturis

5

1.45

-6

11

4

6

3b

Mike Lowell

-1

2.38

4

-14

1

1

3b

Joe Crede

-1

2.25

5

-19

1

1

3b

Troy Glaus

6

2.36

-8

-2

0

0

3b

Adrian Beltre

4

2.58

-9

6

-1

-1

3b

Wilson Betemit

-3

1.57

2

-7

-2

-2

3b

Chad Tracy

-3

2.42

-2

3

-2

-2

3b

Edwin Encarnacion

3

1.67

-7

2

-2

-2

3b

Melvin Mora

-3

2.57

-1

-3

-2

-2

3b

Aaron Boone

-11

1.50

-1

-1

-11

-18

3b

David Bell

-14

2.14

1

-3

-12

-14

3b

Pedro Feliz

-28

2.61

10

-11

-19

-19

3b

Hank Blalock

-16

2.44

-4

-9

-20

-20

3b

Abraham Nunez

-27

1.43

0

3

-25

-43

C

Joe Mauer

39

12.44

7

11

62

66

C

Brian McCann

36

10.41

-2

-14

40

53

C

Jorge Posada

23

11.67

1

-16

31

37

C

Victor Martinez

19

14.10

-3

-20

24

24

C

Ramon Hernandez

8

12.67

2

2

23

27

C

Ivan Rodriguez

-4

13.57

7

14

21

23

C

David Ross

9

6.55

4

-10

17

36

C

Paul Lo Duca

5

12.40

-2

-3

15

17

C

Kenji Johjima

3

12.57

2

-19

12

14

C

Michael Barrett

11

9.24

-8

-9

10

15

C

Mike Napoli

7

7.08

-5

-1

9

18

C

Russ Martin

-4

10.77

1

0

8

11

C

Jason Kendall

-8

14.03

1

-1

7

7

C

Gregg Zaun

2

7.58

-4

-2

5

10

C

A.J. Pierzynski

-3

12.40

-4

-3

5

5

C

Miguel Olivo

-13

11.14

2

8

3

4

C

Ronny Paulino

-5

10.81

0

-13

2

3

C

Mike Piazza

10

10.04

-11

-24

2

3

C

Damian Miller

-13

8.88

3

-2

-2

-3

C

Rod Barajas

-15

9.01

3

1

-3

-5

C

Eliezer Alfonzo

-9

7.55

0

-5

-3

-6

C

Jason Varitek

-12

9.74

-3

0

-5

-8

C

Johnny Estrada

-12

10.47

-1

-12

-6

-9

C

Brian Schneider

-22

10.84

6

-4

-6

-9

C

Bengie Molina

-7

10.91

-6

-15

-7

-9

C

Dioner Navarro

-11

6.98

-4

-3

-9

-19

C

Toby Hall

-15

7.38

0

-13

-12

-25

C

John Buck

-18

9.78

-2

-5

-12

-19

C

Yadier Molina

-34

11.77

9

-12

-17

-24

C

Brad Ausmus

-38

12.37

2

-11

-27

-35

CF

Carlos Beltran

53

0.98

6

21

66

70

CF

Grady Sizemore

48

1.21

4

19

59

51

CF

Vernon Wells

29

1.14

6

-3

35

34

CF

Johnny Damon

26

1.13

-2

19

31

30

CF

Mike Cameron

20

1.08

5

12

30

30

CF

Gary Matthews

25

1.14

-4

7

24

23

CF

Andruw Jones

26

1.11

-7

9

23

22

CF

Corey Patterson

2

0.89

10

16

18

23

CF

Rocco Baldelli

16

0.65

-3

4

15

25

CF

Curtis Granderson

1

1.17

5

12

11

10

CF

Torii Hunter

4

1.09

1

8

8

9

CF

Jim Edmonds

5

0.70

4

-9

7

11

CF

Ryan Freel

-2

0.89

1

12

3

4

CF

Eric Byrnes

-6

1.09

4

10

2

2

CF

Chone Figgins

-4

1.21

-4

28

2

2

CF

Shane Victorino

-4

0.79

-2

14

-1

-1

CF

Kenny Lofton

-2

0.90

-1

1

-2

-2

CF

Aaron Rowand

-13

0.81

6

13

-2

-3

CF

Juan Pierre

-16

1.35

3

17

-7

-6

CF

Steve Finley

-9

0.84

-4

14

-8

-11

CF

Willy Taveras

-17

1.04

0

21

-10

-11

CF

Coco Crisp

-10

0.81

-8

11

-14

-20

CF

Brady Clark

-15

0.83

1

-4

-14

-19

CF

Jose Bautista

-10

0.83

-8

2

-17

-23

CF

Mark Kotsay

-11

1.00

-4

-10

-17

-20

CF

Brian Anderson

-22

0.75

2

0

-19

-31

CF

Cory Sullivan

-18

0.80

-3

-2

-21

-31

CF

Joey Gathright

-23

0.80

-1

-3

-24

-35

CF

Ken Griffey

-9

0.85

-17

-4

-26

-36

DH

Travis Hafner

73

-16.30

0

-20

51

59

DH

David Ortiz

68

-20.75

0

0

47

45

DH

Jim Thome

58

-18.00

0

-7

38

40

DH

Jason Giambi

46

-17.50

0

-22

22

25

DH

Frank Thomas

31

-17.95

0

-23

6

7

DH

Greg Norton

14

-10.85

0

-1

3

6

DH

Shea Hillenbrand

-3

-11.35

0

4

-13

-27

DH

Jay Gibbons

1

-13.05

0

-8

-14

-25

DH

Javier Lopez

-5

-10.50

0

-17

-21

-45

DH

Matt Stairs

-7

-13.55

0

-5

-22

-36

DH

Jonny Gomes

-10

-16.30

0

4

-25

-35

DH

Carl Everett

-14

-12.50

0

2

-26

-49

DH

Rondell White

-20

-13.45

0

-3

-34

-63

LF

Barry Bonds

42

-6.22

0

-8

33

44

LF

Manny Ramirez

60

-7.31

-18

-11

31

37

LF

Matt Holliday

36

-9.75

0

3

27

26

LF

Alfonso Soriano

34

-11.02

2

5

26

24

LF

Reed Johnson

22

-7.31

7

7

24

30

LF

Jason Bay

38

-9.68

-5

-2

23

21

LF

Raul Ibanez

26

-10.49

2

7

20

18

LF

Carl Crawford

19

-9.95

8

7

19

19

LF

Marcus Thames

16

-5.84

4

-7

12

20

LF

Carlos Lee

23

-10.55

-4

2

9

8

LF

David DeJesus

4

-8.16

3

24

6

7

LF

Pat Burrell

20

-8.01

0

-20

6

7

LF

Juan Rivera

19

-7.45

0

-19

6

8

LF

Dave Roberts

13

-8.41

-1

-4

2

3

LF

Ryan Langerhans

-7

-5.61

14

0

1

2

LF

Matt Murton

1

-7.63

3

8

-1

-2

LF

Andre Ethier

6

-6.62

-1

-5

-3

-5

LF

Frank Catalanotto

7

-7.29

-2

-12

-6

-8

LF

Emil Brown

2

-9.03

3

-7

-6

-7

LF

Cliff Floyd

-3

-5.79

1

5

-6

-11

LF

Melky Cabrera

2

-7.85

-5

15

-6

-8

LF

Jay Payton

-4

-9.24

4

7

-7

-8

LF

Adam Dunn

12

-9.88

-6

-11

-7

-7

LF

Luis Gonzalez

-4

-10.02

1

12

-9

-9

LF

Garret Anderson

0

-9.08

0

-4

-10

-11

LF

Jason Michaels

-8

-8.52

1

15

-11

-13

LF

Josh Willingham

16

-8.54

-10

-30

-12

-13

LF

Craig Monroe

-7

-9.50

2

2

-14

-15

LF

Scott Podsednik

-21

-9.50

5

16

-21

-23

LF

Preston Wilson

-19

-6.89

-6

-3

-33

-51

RF

Jermaine Dye

48

-8.19

1

-1

41

43

RF

Vladimir Guerrero

43

-8.97

-3

-2

30

30

RF

Bobby Abreu

37

-8.62

-3

11

29

27

RF

J.D. Drew

28

-7.65

4

8

27

29

RF

Ichiro Suzuki

32

-9.93

0

0

22

19

RF

Alexis Rios

12

-7.06

8

5

14

19

RF

Mike Cuddyer

24

-8.64

-5

11

14

14

RF

Milton Bradley

8

-5.61

8

0

10

17

RF

Casey Blake

11

-6.34

4

-4

7

11

RF

Endy Chavez

3

-5.57

8

0

5

9

RF

Brad Hawpe

20

-7.65

-8

0

4

5

RF

Nick Markakis

3

-7.65

4

11

3

3

RF

Magglio Ordonez

11

-9.08

0

-3

1

1

RF

Austin Kearns

3

-8.79

5

6

1

1

RF

Brian Giles

6

-9.78

7

-8

1

1

RF

Mark DeRosa

3

-8.00

2

5

-1

-2

RF

Moises Alou

13

-5.42

-8

-6

-2

-4

RF

Geoff Jenkins

3

-7.62

0

1

-4

-5

RF

Jeremy Hermida

-7

-4.99

6

2

-5

-10

RF

Trot Nixon

0

-6.15

-2

-1

-8

-12

RF

Kevin Mench

3

-4.88

-6

-6

-10

-18

RF

Jacque Jones

1

-8.37

-1

-14

-13

-14

RF

Shawn Green

-8

-8.46

4

-3

-13

-15

RF

Juan Encarnacion

-7

-8.83

4

-6

-14

-15

RF

Reggie Sanders

-17

-5.53

9

-1

-14

-25

RF

Bernie Williams

-1

-6.71

-6

-8

-16

-23

RF

Randy Winn

-14

-9.24

4

-4

-20

-21

RF

Damon Hollins

-17

-5.55

3

-7

-22

-40

RF

Jason Lane

-12

-5.07

-10

5

-26

-48

RF

Jeff Francoeur

-19

-10.51

-1

13

-27

-25

SS

Derek Jeter

52

10.30

-4

3

59

54

SS

Carlos Guillen

35

9.36

-1

15

48

50

SS

Jose Reyes

27

11.24

-1

22

44

41

SS

Miguel Tejada

24

11.05

-4

1

31

29

SS

Hanley Ramirez

22

11.22

-11

21

29

26

SS

Rafael Furcal

15

11.43

-4

11

26

23

SS

Bill Hall

14

9.88

-3

14

25

27

SS

Jimmy Rollins

9

12.25

-1

9

23

20

SS

Orlando Cabrera

1

10.94

0

24

19

18

SS

Omar Vizquel

-3

10.49

7

10

17

17

SS

Edgar Renteria

5

10.73

-2

9

16

16

SS

Jason Bartlett

1

5.86

9

-1

16

27

SS

Julio Lugo

-2

8.00

2

9

11

16

SS

Michael Young

2

12.04

-4

-7

8

7

SS

David Eckstein

-11

8.77

3

5

2

3

SS

Felipe Lopez

-5

11.36

-10

15

1

1

SS

Khalil Greene

-6

7.74

3

-14

1

1

SS

Alex Gonzalez

-15

7.27

6

2

-1

-2

SS

Marcos Scutaro

-4

6.89

-4

-5

-3

-4

SS

Bobby Crosby

-18

6.87

9

-6

-4

-6

SS

Craig Counsell

-16

6.80

3

7

-4

-6

SS

Adam Everett

-31

9.78

15

2

-6

-6

SS

Jhonny Peralta

-18

10.56

1

-3

-7

-8

SS

Yuniesky Betancourt

-11

9.95

-6

-3

-8

-9

SS

Jack Wilson

-24

10.04

5

3

-8

-9

SS

Juan Uribe

-27

8.96

9

-3

-10

-13

SS

Royce Clayton

-26

8.63

-7

4

-23

-30

SS

Clint Barmes

-42

9.53

1

8

-29

-35

SS

Ronny Cedeno

-45

10.33

1

-2

-34

-39

SS

Angel Berroa

-48

9.34

-6

8

-42

-55