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| Which former Cy Young winner do you think will bring their new MWBL team the most bang for their buck? |
| Brandon Webb |
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0% |
[ 0 ] |
| Jake Peavy |
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60% |
[ 9 ] |
| Johan Santana |
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6% |
[ 1 ] |
| Roy Halladay |
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33% |
[ 5 ] |
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| Total Votes : 15 |
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vomass
Toronto - S#1 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1955
Location: Toronto
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 Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:25 pm Post subject: Best of the Cy Young Winners |
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Apologies to Randy Johnson, but I was looking at multi-year deals only.
Player vitals:
Brandon Webb
current age: 30
contract: 5 years, 7.7m per
Pro: If healthy consistently dominant
Con: first year a complete wash, shoulder injuries can be the DEATH of a pitcher
Jake Peavy
current age: 28
contract: 5 years, 8.7m per
Pro: young, relatively healthy, consistent
Con: now moving to DH league which could impact #'s, PETCO could have helped him more than park adjustments factored in
Johan Santana
current age: 30
contract: 5 years, 12.2m per
Pro: healthy (ish), upside is true ace
Con: peripherals have really slipped since move to NY and workload starting to really get up
Roy Halladay
current age: 32
contract: 5 years, 13.8m per
Pro: an absolute horse workload wise, could be driven with move to a contender
Con: ... an absolute horse workload wise + getting older = uh oh? (i.e. his 49 career complete games is > what the other 3 guys in this poll combined have amassed in their careers combined 31)
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Doug Goodman
Brooklyn
Joined: 08 Sep 2006
Posts: 1559
Location: Win! Twins!
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| Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:49 pm Post subject: |
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I voted halladay, with peavy second. I'm all for paying top dollar for true stars, and halladay is the only one I'm 100% certain fits the bill. Peavy is interestin, especially since his injury last year was an ankle, but I'm not sure he's quite as good in the AL (and as a ChiSox) than in Petco.
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Nate
New Hampshire
Joined: 07 Jun 2007
Posts: 948
Location: New York, NY
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 12:05 am Post subject: |
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| I think Halladay's got the inside track, just because this year his value is already maybe +6 or 7 million (based on what Vazquez got, at least). But, to be honest, all of these deals kind of scare me. Maybe I'm just risk averse, but 5 year contracts to pitchers for lots of money is a huge gamble, regardless of the guy's track record. |
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vomass
Toronto - S#1 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1955
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 12:30 am Post subject: |
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| Nate wrote: | | I think Halladay's got the inside track, just because this year his value is already maybe +6 or 7 million (based on what Vazquez got, at least). |
Actually I have his value this year is negative.
Here are their O-ops, even though I use an adjusted wOBA but I don't have those #'s off hand:
Dan Haren 632
Javier Vazquez 610
* those 2 are basically the same when you factor in parks, 6 of one half dozen of the other
then there is a fairly HUGE gap
Then you have these folks, all of them within 1-3% of value of each other IMO. There is really no HUGE differences was you factor in splits and parks and such.
Randy Wolf 656
Roy Halladay 667
Joel Pineiro 669
Randy Wells 677
Wandy Rodriguez 692
Scott Feldman 693
And these 2 belong in that group too, except they have <30 starts so a knock of 1 playoff start is worth some value.
Ted Lilly 661
Johan Santana 689
Now lets look at the contracts:
Randy Wolf 1/7.2
Roy Halladay 5/13.8
Joel Pineiro 1/11
Randy Wells 2/6.5 (1/9.0 to top that bid)
Wandy Rodriguez 3/7.1 (1/11.20 to top)
Scott Feldman 2/4 (1/5.5 to top)
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Ted Lilly 1/10.50
Johan Santana 5/12.20
Excluding Feldman, who I think could be is an absolute monster steal for this season but don't believe it at ALL for next year, and Wolf (LHP bias?) you're basically looking at 9-11 for 1 season of a pitcher who I think is basically going to give you exactly what Doc would this sim. So, for this sim, I think 13.80 is an overpay. Slight overpay maybe, but one nonetheless.
| Quote: | | Maybe I'm just risk averse, but 5 year contracts to pitchers for lots of money is a huge gamble, regardless of the guy's track record. |
Yeah I'm the same way. Actually I'm pretty averse to signing any player LT for more than even 7/8 million, I don't like the risk/reward profile at all.
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Nate
New Hampshire
Joined: 07 Jun 2007
Posts: 948
Location: New York, NY
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| I don't think you're giving enough credit to: (a) the difference between leagues, (b) the difference between ballparks, and (c) and the difference between the defenses these guys had behind them. And Halladay, unlike all the other guys on this list, should get a little boost just from the number of CGs he'll give a team. It's hard to factor what those are worth, but the Ex stamina rating he'll get is definitely a positive to throw in, as well. |
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vomass
Toronto - S#1 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1955
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 11:37 am Post subject: |
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| Nate wrote: | | I don't think you're giving enough credit to: (a) the difference between leagues, (b) the difference between ballparks, and (c) and the difference between the defenses these guys had behind them. |
a) this should have 0 impact on the sim
b) actually I use wOBA which I adjust for ballparks using last year's park factors, so I consider it quite a bit ... that's part of how Feldman gets in there, and the Rogers Centre is NOT some hitter friendly park ... check espn's park factors too (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor) ... everyone I talked to about Rolen seemed to assume he'd translate poorly out of the Rogers Centre as well, not true at all. When you put together a team that can't hit a lick, defends extremely well and can pitch, games at your home park tend to be low scoring and your park tends to look better ... Rogers Centre is pretty much a neutral park that is impacted by the teams put on the field a great deal. But when it comes to park factor ratings for DMB, I'd bet anything that Rogers Centre will be pitcher friendly this season. Halladay will be hurt by the translation out.
c) this should have 0 impact on the sim
a & c have much more to do with answering the question: who is the better pitcher? I don't think there's any question Halladay is better than the likes of Wolf, Feldman, Wandy etc. But when it comes to who is worth how much $ next season in MWBL, it's purely about how they performed last year and from what I can tell there is no adjustment for which league you played in or for what defense you had behind you. So I'm giving those factors no credit b/c they deserve none.
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WrenFGun
Durham
Joined: 19 Sep 2006
Posts: 2142
Location: Brighton
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| I cannot believe Scott Feldman went so cheaply. That is an amazing contract. I don't believe in year 2 but at least he'll get some starts. 5.5 AAV is excellent for him. |
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mckeeno
Hollywood - S#5 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 2943
Location: Hollywood Stars
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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I'm not going to go into my evaluation of pitchers, but I think you're crazy if you think Halladay won't sim on the level of Vazquez & Haren, if not better.
Really, the only downside is Halladay may get a prone rating.
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vomass
Toronto - S#1 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1955
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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| mckeeno wrote: | | I'm not going to go into my evaluation of pitchers, but I think you're crazy if you think Halladay won't sim on the level of Vazquez & Haren, if not better. |
Well then we have very different methodologies then b/c I don't see it that way at all.
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Nate
New Hampshire
Joined: 07 Jun 2007
Posts: 948
Location: New York, NY
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Maybe I give DMB more credit than it deserves. |
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JJ
Montreal
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 1580
Location: Here
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Fwiw I believe dmb does adjust for defense but not for league. Iirc. |
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vomass
Toronto - S#1 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1955
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 4:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Nate wrote: | | Maybe I give DMB more credit than it deserves. |
Maybe, maybe I don't give it enough. I just don't see how you could make such adjustments, I think it would be exceptionally difficult. Adjusting for league in particular is a complete crapshoot, there would be WAY too much noise IMO.
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