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rswanzey
Manchester - Criminal
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 4857
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 Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:38 pm Post subject: Manchester - Degrassi |
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To Manchester:
RHP Kevin Milwood (1 / 3)
RHP Brian Wilson (1 / .2)
"CIF"/DH Jorge Cantu (1 / .5)
OF Johnny Damon (2 / 6.5)
To Degrassi:
LHP Barry Zito (2 / 7.
INF Willy Aybar (ML3)
OF Carlos Lee (1 / 2.7)
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DegrassiPanthers
Degrassi
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 779
Location: Staunton, IL
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| Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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yes...let the grilling commence.
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Pawtucket Doc
Pawtucket
Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 1676
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| Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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Wait. Didn't you just deal your first for Millwood? Ugh, I think I like Swanzey's end better. I'll wait for commentary from someone smarter than myself.
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DegrassiPanthers
Degrassi
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 779
Location: Staunton, IL
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| Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:54 pm Post subject: |
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I didn't think this draft had a whole lot of value in it....part of the reason I did this is b/c Fuld gets 60AB total v. LHP...then it's off to his replacement Victorino
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jelder
Anchorage - The Champ
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 2899
Location: The Hartbeat, CT
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| Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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| DegrassiPanthers wrote: | | I didn't think this draft had a whole lot of value in it....part of the reason I did this is b/c Fuld gets 60AB total v. LHP...then it's off to his replacement Victorino |
Even if you think that, the #4 overall is different than the draft as a whole. For what its worth, Jacob Turner (the #4 pick) would be the best prospect in your system. I'd say that has some decent value, which would have been worth keeping if you intended to turn Millwood into a worse SP.
You traded a righty masher for a lefty masher, a mid rotation SP for a back of the rotation SP, gave up the better bench bat, took on the worse LT deal, and threw in a cheap set up reliever to top it off. Fail IMO |
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DegrassiPanthers
Degrassi
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 779
Location: Staunton, IL
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| Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 11:08 pm Post subject: |
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Jake has showed me the error of my ways...is there such thing as a do-over?
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vomass
Toronto - S#1 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1955
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 11:53 pm Post subject: |
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| jelder wrote: |
You traded a righty masher for a lefty masher, a mid rotation SP for a back of the rotation SP, gave up the better bench bat, took on the worse LT deal, and threw in a cheap set up reliever to top it off. Fail IMO |
Well ...
- I agree Damon this year>Lee this year
- disagree that Millwood>Zito (imo it's a wash, all things considered, Zito was actually better than Millwood but Millwood is a RH)
- while Canut is a better bat than Aybar, he's JUST a bat ... Pr at 1b, Pr at 3b, on a team with no DH ... to Degrassi, Aybar>Cantu, to Manchester, Cantu>Aybar ... everyone wins.
- completely disagree that Damon's deal is better than Zito's ... Damon was a yankee stadium creation last year, hit most of his HR at home and barely over that short RF fence. I'd rather roll the dice on Zito being worth 7.8m than Damon being worth 6.5m next year.
So all that said, if you consider the contracts basically a wash (Zito v Damon, though I prefer this side for Deg slightly), and the SP are a wash (basically a wash to me), the INF are a wash (and I think they are), and even if you could call Lee/Damon a wash (edge small edge Manch) ... I'd say that all kind of works out to a fair deal. Of course, that leaves us with Brian Wilson, who Manchester apparently put in his cart but forgot to pay for.
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Murph
Cleveland
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 3382
Location: Here
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| Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 12:08 am Post subject: |
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| vomass wrote: | | - completely disagree that Damon's deal is better than Zito's ... Damon was a yankee stadium creation last year, hit most of his HR at home and barely over that short RF fence. I'd rather roll the dice on Zito being worth 7.8m than Damon being worth 6.5m next year. |
I don't think either will be worth their deal. I might be willing to listen to an argument that Zito has a better chance of being worth 7.8 then Damon has of being worth 6.5. I'm up in the air on that.
The big difference is that I think Damon has a dramatically better chance of at least being worth something.
Also given that they both have a strong chance to be a disaster, I think I'd rather be assured of at least saving that 1.3M.
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vomass
Toronto - S#1 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1955
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 12:30 am Post subject: |
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| Murph wrote: |
The big difference is that I think Damon has a dramatically better chance of at least being worth something.
Also given that they both have a strong chance to be a disaster, I think I'd rather be assured of at least saving that 1.3M. |
That's where I disagree, I think the bashing of Zito is a little overblown. Even in his "horrible" years he's not been THAT bad. Heck, as a comp V Padilla had a .756 opp OPS this year, and he cost 5 million in the auction. Even Jake bid 3 on him, say Montreal overpaid you can make a solid argument he's worth at least 4. What has Zito's recent career looked like?
.757, .662, .756, .721 .769, .715
Okay, don't like the trend (due for a bad year), but still the "bad years" aren't that terrible. Plus, last year he wasn't just lucky, he posted his highest K rate since 2001 and his best K:BB since 2005. And he'll be 32 this year.
Damon, by contrast, turns 37 this year, can't defend, plays an extremely easy to fill position, didn't run much last year (bad sign), can't hit LH, hit the vast majority of his HR barely over the RF fence in an extremely friendly park for LHB and doesn't even have a job right now.
I'd say Zito is almost a lock to be worth ~4 million barring injury. Even if he has a "down" year, replacing him in the auction wouldn't be easy. Damon, however, I think is massively overpaid even this year if you have him in LF. I honestly don't think he should be making more than 1-3 THIS year. I saw way more valuable platoon options go for 1-3 in the auction. And next year outside of Yankee Stadium he could (if not should) be even worse.
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Nate
New Hampshire
Joined: 07 Jun 2007
Posts: 948
Location: New York, NY
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| Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:22 am Post subject: |
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| But, Vomass, did you see Damon's DOUBLE steal in the playoffs? Those are intangibles, baby. Try teaching that to Zito! |
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vomass
Toronto - S#1 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1955
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:48 am Post subject: |
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| Nate wrote: | | But, Vomass, did you see Damon's DOUBLE steal in the playoffs? Those are intangibles, baby. Try teaching that to Zito! |
Say what?
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Murph
Cleveland
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 3382
Location: Here
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| Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 10:33 am Post subject: |
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A couple points and a philosophical thought on Monte…
- Yankee stadium keeps getting mentioned against Damon, but no mention of AT&T against Zito. AT&T wasn’t so pitcher friendly last year, but historically it is. Yankee stadium actually suppressed runs by a good margin over AT&T last year. Argue the short porch and all… I just don’t think I buy the park is as big of a difference as its being made out to be.
- Saying Damon can’t defend is over the top, he got an AVG/167 rating. This is no different then our Rolen discussion a few months back. Using defensive measures, Rolen was really just an above average defender last year, not an EX (IMO). He got an EX though, and so that’s what he is. I’d agree that if Damon’s rating was to change next season, there’s a better chance of sliding to a FR then a VG. Even still, I think to say he can’t defend is going a little far. Even if he is a disaster out there I really doubt DMB rates him as such (gives him a PR)
Philosophical.
To me, starting pitchers in Monte have a high threshold where if they don’t meet it then I think they have next to no value. It’s an either you are or you’re not position since you can’t abuse splits. If Zito posts a line like all of his projections suggest, I find him practically worthless. To a contending team he’s an emergency starter and to a non-contending team he’s just innings fodder… at which point the quality of the innings isn’t of much consequence to most. I won’t go as far as saying there’s NO market for a pitcher like that, but I think it’s very limited.
Now I think translating that logic to prospects is incorrect. But in the case of two veterans where you have a good idea what you’re going to get, and its likely neither will be star players… I think it means a lot.
I think the most likely scenario with these two is that they both suck, and given that scenario I think Damon has the better chance of at least providing something of use.
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vomass
Toronto - S#1 Champ
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1955
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:57 am Post subject: |
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| Murph wrote: |
- Yankee stadium keeps getting mentioned against Damon, but no mention of AT&T against Zito. ... Argue the short porch and all…
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Okay I will ... take a look at Damon's actual #'s.
Home: 272ab, 17hr, 918ops
Road: 278ab, 7hr, 798ops
and to argue the short porch specifically, check out his HR pattern (click HR box after link):
Link is here
And the problem is, he won't play in that park in 2010. So it's extremely likely that wherever he lands won't be as good of a fit for him as NY was. That's why I keep bringing it up, b/c while the game adjusts players we know it's not a perfect adjustment and that certain parks, in reality, will help some players more than others. Damon, IMO, was one of the players who seems to have gotten a tremendous boost out of playing in the new Yankee Stadium, which he will not do in 2010.
| Quote: |
- Saying Damon can’t defend is over the top, he got an AVG/167 rating. |
And a Fr arm, and he's probably one of the guys at risk every year for a Pr arm (that was his rating in 07&08 ). Similarly to him being more likely to be Fr than Vg in range next year, he's more likely to be Pr than Av in arm strength.
Outside of that I don't really disagree with what you're saying, just disagree with your conclusion of what will happen. It's probably a mix for me of thinking that corner OF, in general, are overrated and that LHP, once again generally, are underrated. But we'll see what happens I guess ...
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JJ
Montreal
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 1580
Location: Here
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| Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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| It was very frustrating to watch damon hit in that park. I think they built it for him. |
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Murph
Cleveland
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 3382
Location: Here
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| Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2010 7:59 pm Post subject: |
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Done in player list
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