Monte Ward Baseball League

[rswanzey]

EGOFEST! Here's my Season 10 roster, but these always end up so different by the time the draft is done, that this is really just an exercise in time-killing.

Red - oh fuck
Green - fuck yes
Blue - may or may not be fucked

Catcher
Miguel Montero - O1 - .227/.211 vLHP, .392/.477 vRHP – I ponied up a lot of talent in a deal for Montero, but feel that a strong player in his prime entering his option years is a good investment up the middle. His numbers vLHP are weak, but he has hit them well in the past, and the sample size this season is all of 19 AB. Will need a lot of playing time down the stretch to reach 350 AB, but no reason why he won’t get there. Really happy to add him and I think he will be underpaid at 3m next season for sure.

Carlos Ruiz – 1 / .5 – .452/.500 vLHP, .377/.356 vRHP. Excellent 35/28 BB/K ratio and signed at a bargain. I may end up trading him to shore up holes elsewhere, but him and Montero make a hell of a 1-2 punch behind the plate otherwise. Still needs a pile of AB to get to 350, but he will get them.

Kelly Shoppach – O1/match - .487/.500 vLHP, .212/.133 vRHP. Only has 75 AB and spent a good deal of the season hurt, but he’s getting a good deal of PT now. Still, unless he’s a bargain via matching, he’s probably not going to be around. Having a quality lefty-masher as a 3rd catcher is more of a luxury than a necessity.

Alex Avila – ML1 - .261/.125 vLHP, .298/.331 vRHP. Had a very respectable May and June before falling off a cliff this month. Gerald Laird isn’t very good either, though. This is more of a long-term play than anything, and at worst, he’s a competent 3rd catcher making the bare minimum – should end up with close to 300 AB. Obviously I am in a position to deal one of these three non-Montero catchers in the coming months.

First Base
Ryan Howard – match - .325/.514 vLHP, .376/.544 vRHP. Obviously it depends what he gets in the market as to whether he is back with the Hornets next year. He has been on fire since a slow post-crazy ass extension hangover. Legitimate middle of the order bat which I really will need 1-2 more of to avoid the same heavy pitching/awful offense problem I faced early on this season.

Carlos Pena – 2 / 8 - .288/.398 vLHP, .357/.471 vRHP. I am very afraid of the final year of this contract, but at least he has started to pick things up recently. Even if he gets back to being a beast vRHP, 8m for a defensively limited player on the left side of the spectrum is probably market value (hello Garrett Jones! Thanks for the unexpected AV ratings). Still, it’d be really nice to pencil in Pena to the middle of the lineup and avoid a potentially stupid match on Howard.

Justin Smoak – ML1 - .224/.316 vLHP, .318/.345 vRHP. The future is having a rough go of it. His BB/K ratio started off great but he has REALLY struggled with a 3/28 in July. His underlying peripherals are still encouraging, I just think he needed more AAA times, and sticking him in a lineup full of Ichiro and pitchers who for some reason are playing positions really isn’t helping. He’ll be just fine, but isn’t someone I really want to pencil into the lineup at all. He will have a pile of AB though as injury depth, and maybe he can get his RHP split back to the point of being useful.

Second Base
Jack Wilson – 1 / .5 - .275/.271 vLHP, .287/.328 vRHP. Yes, if next season started tomorrow, he would start at second for me. With my pitching staff (as I showed this year), I am not afraid to start an awful bat or two if it’s going to pay dividends for a strong GB-heavy staff. You can always look around for better options in season. I think Wilson is an ideal defensive replacement supersub for someone, and he still may fill that role for me. Should end up in the 300-350 AB vicinity.

Shortstop
Yunel Escobar – O1/match - .392/.377 vLHP, .326/.304 vRHP. This will be among my more difficult offseason decisions, but that said Escobar had a sterling BB/K ratio while still in Atlanta, profiles as VG-EX defensively, and has OPSed at .901 since the trade. Even if his numbers stay unimpressive, I have doubts I can do a lot better with the 3m he’d be owed via the option. That said, I expected a lot more when I acquired him, though he has outperformed my expectations for him this sim, which is just fine with me.

Third Base
Evan Longoria – ML3 - .444/.554 vLHP, .358/.484 vRHP. He’s okay, I guess.

Outfield
Adam Lind – O1/match - .157/.165 vLHP, .325/.467 vRHP. Absolutely abysmal May and June, turning it on in the second half. Getting his bat back as a viable 5/6 option vs RHP would be really big for cutting down my shopping list a bit.

Carlos Beltran – 1 / 12 – .250/.545 vLHP, .349/.324 vRHP. For the second year in a row, Beltran should be a premier player when on the field, but someone who will require the presence of a starting caliber 4th OF (e.g. Pagan, Damon this season) to spell him to manage his PT. 48 AB thus far, expect him to end up 200-300.

Hunter Pence - O1/match - .329/.443 vLHP, .319/.448 vRHP. Pence is a near-certain option guy for me, and someone I am pretty comfortable with starting full-time in a down year for offense, especially given his even splits and excellent glove.

Matt Diaz – match/O1 - .313/.625 vLHP, .262/.279 vRHP. If matched, Diaz will be back to once again serve as a LHP caddy for one of the many platoon bats I typically own.

Starting Rotation – ohhhhhh baby.
Roy Halladay – 4 / 13.8 – 7.84 K/9, 1.05 BB/9, 50.1 GB%, 2.21 ERA, 2.80 FIP. Halladay is already a 5-win player this year. Worth every freakin’ penny. Also, he already has 8 CGs.

Jon Lester – O2 – 9.49 K/9, 3.18 BB/9, 52.3 GB%, 2.92 ERA, 2.89 FIP. Like I mentioned, I’m thinking of shopping Lester, but part of me is just tempted to enter the year with three legitímate #1 starters. Another excellent year from Jonny.

Mat Latos – ML2 – 8.64 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 47.9 GB%, 2.45 ERA, 3.41 FIP. Last summer, I spent a full night sick to my stomach after trading Lincecum. Latos is making me thankful for trusting my gut, since I was correct in thinking I could still contend this year without Timmeh and set myself up a little better for the long-term (yes, I’m not saying that was the most likely outcome, just reiterating why I took that gamble). He’s improved in every way this season, even becoming a more grounder-friendly pitcher, which I did not expect at all.

James Shields – 4 / 8.5 – 8.11 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 41.4 GB%, 4.79 ERA, 3.69 FIP. Shields has been a little disappointing, but his peripherals are still strong and even if you don’t buy his ERA simming a bit better, he should certainly be a very solid 3/4 type guy. Eats innings, controls the strike zone… I like it.

Tommy Hanson – ML2 – 9.18 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 39.3 GB%, 3.99 ERA, 3.20 FIP. He’s improved in every way and has some excellent K and BB numbers. The difference is a lower (normalized) LOB% and a higher hit rate. He’ll be just fine, and I could do a LOT worse for a back-end starter. He should pitch better than that.

Jason Hammel – match/O1 – 7.77 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 44.3 GB%, 4.34 ERA, 3.52 FIP. He’s my 6? I honestly didn’t think he was a big piece of the Yunel/Garrett Jones deal, but he’s exceeded expectations, and with 18 GS looks like a strong asset in Monte next year. He’s the reason I am definitely open to dealing pitching.

Travis Wood – ML1 – 7.88 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 29.1 GB%, 2.87 ERA, 3.35 FIP. I’m drinking the Wood kool-aid and was thrilled to pick him up in the 4th round last year. I buy his improvement the past two seasons as real, and think he is undersold. He does not have rotation-fronting potential, but I buy that his upside is higher than the #4ish level he is always described as. Lefties with strong command, 94 MPH fastballs, and strong secondary pitches aren’t exactly plentiful. The GB rate is concerning and something that is not likely to improve, but at the same time I think he can continue to make it work. Probably has more value to someone else than to me, but assuming one of the other starters is dealt, he slots in excellently as a swingman/#6 guy with an eye at the #5 spot in the future.

Bullpen
Billy Wagner – 1 / 1.5 – 13.08 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 34.5 GB%, 1.69 ERA, 2.48 FIP. A big motivator behind the Montero deal, and an elite reliever for next season. I’m very comfortable landing a legitimate relief ace that is worth four times his salary in the open market, and perhaps more.

Jonathan Papelbon – O2 – 7.68 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 33.6 GB%, 2.91 ERA, 4.31 FIP. Someone who may be on the move again with a suddenly deep bullpen at hand. Papelbon last year had a mediocre first half before hitting his stride, and I made the gamble that that would repeat itself. Though his acquisition was largely a Season 9-minded move. Slots in as a good secondary setup man for me.

Brandon League – ML2 – 6.62 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 62.9 GB%, 3.40 ERA, 4.13 FIP. Really happy with this pickup, who has given me great value this sim and looks like a solid contributor next year, though more of a middle man. I love groundballs and hate walks, so his strengths play into my roster construction well.

Eric O’Flaherty – ML3 – 7.76 K/9, 3.73 BB/9, 59.5 GB%, 2.30 ERA, 3.14 FIP. Groundballing lefty was mediocre last year but looks like part of a strong middle relief corps in 2010.

Shawn Camp – 2 / .5 – 5.84 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, 51.4 GB%, 2.92 ERA, 3.91 FIP. Another gut decision I’m glad I went with. Camp’s profile again fits my roster very well, and he gave me some dominant innings before getting beaten around the last couple weeks. Fine long man.

Josh Roenicke, Doug Mathis, etc. – Need more innings for a chance to be more than injury depth. The sim really likes both pitchers, but Mathis has had a real tough time this year. Both get lots of GBs… see the pattern yet? They’re making peanuts so if they don’t pan out, it’s OK.

I don’t have a ton of money but expect to be able to free some more up. I also don’t feel I have a lot to add to this offense to see myself as a .600 club next year, and I think I have the prospect talent to make a couple big moves, either preseason or in-season. Top 20 list soon whenever I’m bored at work again.
_________________
Season 4 Sparky Anderson Wild Card
Season 5 Sparky Anderson Division Title
Season 6-7 Earl Weaver Champion
Season 8: Sometimes you'd like to understand what's going through my head

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

[Murph]

You definitely have a lot more talent then me, but with some quick math and adding in the possible options (Montero, Escobar, Hammel) you come up with about 65 million spent, not counting any ML players, and Howard not signed yet. Probably sub 10 mil in cap. I'm hoping my advantage in cap position can help close the gap.

Now I'm sure you'll unload Pena, possibly Beltran and maybe get someone to take Shields... and that's about 28M. The extra pitching to deal will fill some hole for sure too. I think you still have a bunch of prospects too.

I was pondering the status of my starting pitching VS yours a few days ago... What's better for sim 10?

1. Halladay/Lester/Latos/Shields/Hanson/Hammel/Wood

2. Verlander/Price/Chacin/Medlen/Leake + 25 mil

Even if I bring in 2 "Halladay-ish/Lester-ish" pitchers for the 25 mil, I still think #1 might be a little better, since Shields can get shipped out and save a bunch of money (and because #1 might just be better regardless)
_________________

[rswanzey]

I don't have to have a better team than you before the season begins, I just have to end up with one of the two best teams in the division. That said, yes, I would expect to move some money. I don't have any 'dead' contracts, so I don't expect freeing some cap to be impossibly difficult. I think watching what kind of deals have been made the last 12 months, it's clear that big salaries aren't an issue if the players are productive and/or meet needs for the other owner. And yes, I expect to turn some of my pitching surplus into hitting talent. In other words, I'm not especially worried about it. That's a damn good collection of arms you have yourself, but I would definitely take mine. You bring up a good point that on a $/win basis though, yours does a LOT better. Sure, Halladay is an elite, elite pitcher, but I'm paying him to be one. That's part of my MO though.

P.S. I forgot Pence in the above writeup. He's a .325/.450 bat from both sides with an excellent glove, and someone I think I'd be pretty foolish not to option.
_________________
Season 4 Sparky Anderson Wild Card
Season 5 Sparky Anderson Division Title
Season 6-7 Earl Weaver Champion
Season 8: Sometimes you'd like to understand what's going through my head

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

[rswanzey]

The System

Today I was bored at work, so I did this. For borderline cases, the first grade listed is the one I lean towards, while the second is one I think could easily be justified (if a half-step up, because of projection - if a half-step down, because of question marks/performance). I'm satisfied with my system for a few reasons: because a lot of the lower-tier guys have a lot of breakout potential over the next 1-3 seasons, because there is at least a little bit of upper vs. lower minors balance, because an organizational weakness (OF) can be addressed by some of the upper-minors outfielders, and because there is a LOT of high minors pitching on the way. Additionally, I think with a couple of exceptions that I'm trying to hit home runs on the low minors players, and if you're going to give players multiple years with a roster spot, the upside better be there. More work to be done this coming offseason, but I feel MUCH better than where I was pre-rebuild about 18 months ago.

Write ups are below in alphabetical order if you're interested - I tried to be pretty honest with them.

The list:
(1) LHP Martin Perez (A-)
(2) OF Engel Beltre (B+)
(3) RHP Simon Castro (B+)
(4) RHP Alexander Colome (B/B+)
(5) RHP Dellin Betances (B/B+)
(6) OF Trayvon Robinson (B)
(7) RHP Ethan Martin (B)
(8) LHP Rudy Owens (B)
(9) RHP Wilmer Font (B/B-)
(10) 1B Lars Anderson (B/B-)
(11) RHP Fabio Martinez Mesa (B-/B)
(12) 3B Edinson Rincon (B-)
(13) RHP Madison Younginer (B-)
(14) RHP Roman Mendez (B-)
(15) OF David Lough (B-/C+)
(16) RHP Adys Portillo (C+/B-)
(17) SS Derrik Gibson (C+/B-)
(18) RHP Dae-Eun Rhee (C+/B-)
(19) C Michael McKenry (C+)
(20) RHP Alexander Perez (C+)
(21) SS Jarek Cunningham (C+)

By level:
AAA - C McKenry, 1B Anderson, OF Lough
AA - LHP Owens, LHP Perez, RHP Castro, OF Beltre, OF Robinson
A+ - RHP Betances, RHP Font, RHP Martin, RHP Perez, RHP Rhee
A - RHP Colome, RHP Martinez Mesa, SS Cunningham, SS Gibson, 3B Rincon
A- (SS) - RHP Mendez, RHP Portillo, RHP Younginer


1B Lars Anderson (BOS AAA) – After a torrid start at Portland, hitting an underwhelming .242/.334/.407 at Pawtucket. It is easy to forget he is 22 because his name has been well-known for so long. There are some concerning signs here, and a much-improved July was pretty BABIP-fueled, but I still think this is a player being written off too early. I’m not sure he gets the chance he needs in Boston, but given his track record, he seems to show competence after a rough adjustment period, where he’s usually been young for his levels. I see an average regular with a big vRHP split with a couple All-Star seasons mixed in his prime. I think he’ll be a pretty handy Monte piece but he’ll need to catch a couple of breaks. My grade: B/B-

OF Engel Beltre (TEX AA) – When players with Beltre’s tools start to put things together, watch out. Beltre’s BB and K rates are both greatly improved this year – he had a lot of room for improvement, but following a .335/.378/.458 line in 260 high-A at-bats, he has a 6/4 BB/K total in AA in 92 AB. This is a five-tool 20-year-old holding his own in AA with a .293/.350/.424 line improving by far his greatest weakness. I of course want to see more, but this is no question a top 75 prospect at this point. My grade: B+

RHP Dellin Betances (NYY A+) – After TJ surgery, the top-of-the-rotation potential is still here, and the results are finally coming. His always strong K rate (10.49) is now matched by an equally impressive BB rate (2.31), and the 22-year-old has now thrown 58.1 innings of ball at a 2.17 FIP. He could be looking at a late season sniff of AA, but starting his age-23 year there next season after starting his professional career raw and losing a year to surgery isn’t bad at all. My grade: B/B+

RHP Simon Castro (SD AA) – The 22-year-old skipped over high A but maintained strong results to go with his favorable scouting reports. 7.21 K/9 with strong command (2.57 BB/9) and has shifted from flyball to groundball happy (49.8 GB%). Looks like a #2/#3 to me and is in pretty much anyone’s top 25. My grade: B+

RHP Alexander Colome (TB A) – This 21-year-old righty really excited me in last year’s draft and I was happy to grab him. Outside of a poor June, the results have been outstanding, and he has rotation-fronting potential. Tampa Bay is conservative with prospect promotions, giving me hope that he will be properly handled and prepared to contribute when called upon. Has struck out nearly a batter per inning with solid command. You’d like to see a little more dominance in low-A, but the whole package is here for a deadly pitcher as he puts it all together. My grade: B/B+

SS Jarek Cunningham (PIT A) – Jarek was more of a flier for me, a first-round talent who lost all of last year to injury and is flying well under the radar now. He has shown some considerable promise outside of a K rate that has to come down for him to be productive at higher levels, but he is understandably shaking off some rust. His .272/.326/.454 line at West Virginia is weighed down by a brutal May – since then, he is coming off of a .325/.410/.578 June and .275/.339/.505 July as he starts to put things together. He’s a long ways away, but the 20-year-old offers some intriguing power potential from the middle infield in a system where there’s little in his way all the way through the MLB level. My grade: C+

RHP Wilmer Font (TEX A+) – The 20-year-old performed well in low-A again (4.09 FIP, 9.90 K/9), but walks are still a problem for him – command isn’t all the way there yet. Moved up to Bakersfield in mid-May, he’s struggled considerably, but has still shown the excellent raw tools/stuff to be an impact pitcher. He’s just going to need to make adjustments and will require some patience, but time is certainly on his side. My grade: B/B-

SS Derrik Gibson (BOS A) – Not a whole lot to say in terms of positives for his season: Ks are pretty high for a leadoff/#2 profile hitter, but he’s still walking and showing doubles power. Still at SS for now, but probably a 2B long-term. Still, he’s just 20, and showed considerable potential last season. I expect a rebound in high-A next season. My grade: C+/B-

OF David Lough (KC AAA) - .259/.320/.422 at AAA Omaha. Not a great year offensively, and he’s 24, but he was primarily a football player in high school and has been brought along slowly due to being a little raw for a four-year college player. Fun fact: I drove him from the airport to Burlington Athletic Stadium when I interned with the Royals’ Appy League affiliate in 2007, and got lost on the way. Cool guy. Has an intriguing speed/power combo with solid defense in center, but I think he is probably more of a tweener/4th OF type. Looks like an asset in CF against RHP, however, and my upper minors positional depth was fairly thin, so for nostalgic and organizational reasons alike, he seemed like a good target. KC’s outfield is starting to empty out a little bit, and my guess is he can rack up some playing time and become perhaps a solid platoon option in the near-future. My grade: B-/C+

RHP Ethan Martin (LAD A+) – A rough July really hurts his overall numbers, but Martin has had issues with control all season. His K rate has steadily crept down month by month as well. I can’t say I’m not concerned, but I’m also willing to give him some rope given the very difficult pitching environment and his raw stuff. This is his age 21 season, and we will learn a lot about Martin when we see how he adjusts to AA in 2011. My grade: B

RHP Fabio Martinez Mesa (LAA A) – Mesa looks like Dellin Betances did pre-injury: absurd strikeout rates as a starting pitcher with sky-high potential, but maddening inconsistency. Following Mesa’s game logs has meant swallowing a several-walk start every few turns, turning his seasonal totals a little ugly. Still, we’re talking about a toolsy 20-year-old who in his full-season debut has managed a 3.50 FIP and absurd 12.45 K/9. This kind of prospect flames out a lot, but also once in a while turns into a real impact pitcher. My grade: B-/B

C Michael McKenry (COL AAA) – McKenry is hitting .287/.350/.434 in AAA with a slight tilt towards southpaws. The 25-year-old has a solid approach at the plate and has typically posted solid CS% numbers (47, 33, and 33 2008-2010) with few passed balls (just 1 all season). I think McKenry profiles as a decent enough backup catcher who could start in a pinch for a lower-tier team, and who should enjoy a long career thanks to his glove. He has walked more and shown more power in the past, but has seen a dip in both areas in his first taste of AAA. I think the Rockies would be well served to turn starting duties over to Chris Iannetta (FINALLY), and give McKenry a chance to beat out a veteran alternative for the backup gig. You could do a lot worse. My grade: C+

RHP Roman Mendez (TEX A-) – Mendez received some press as a breakout candidate this past offseason thanks to blazing high-90s heat, but really struggled in Greenville before a demotion to short-season Lowell. Thankfully, he was traded to Texas in the Salty deal, where he will undoubtedly follow in Engel Beltre’s footsteps and all of a sudden translate his tools to success because he left the Red Sox organization. In fact, Mendez’s first start for Texas was: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 K. Even in light of his struggles, he just turned 20 at the end of July and has posted a 10.10 K/9 this year with a 4.97 BB/9. File him under the Martinez Mesa category. Will take a long time, but if things suddenly click, he profiles as a pretty scary pitcher to face. My grade: B-

LHP Rudy Owens (PIT AA) – Owens will probably not end up as more than a 4th starter, but he is in an organization where he should get every chance to establish himself for lack of better alternatives. Though his stuff doesn’t support a plus strikeout rate in MLB, he keeps the ball on the ground (48%) and has passed the AA litmus test with flying colors thanks to excellent command (1.42 BB/9). I want to see more, but I think the 22-year-old may be a poor man’s Travis Wood, and I REALLY like Wood. He posted a ridiculous 3/32 BB/K ratio in 29.3 innings in July and has improved throughout the season. He should see innings at some point next year if things keep going like this, and though I’m not ready to bet on it, I feel like he is another soft-tossing lefty who can make it work and possibly even exceed expectations a bit. My grade: B

LHP Martin Perez – TEX AA – If Perez were American, we would be talking about him for the 2012 MLB draft. Instead, the 19-year-old is holding his own in AA. The only reason this season should be looked at as a step backwards for Perez is because of the already ridiculously high expectations for him based on his dominance and ARL last season. Perez’s GB rate (50%) and K rate (8.76) are both big positives, and his 4.28 BB/9, though obviously higher and unfavorable, isn’t exactly career-threatening. This is still a consensus top-25 prospect and I think people would regret bumping him any lower. What’s most exciting to me is that we’ve already heard about Perez’ plus curve and fastball. His changeup has previously been described as rudimentary, but mrkupe, a pretty solid/fair talent evaluator at Sickels’ blog, has described his changeup as above-already with the potential to be plus-plus – the best in the game. Adding a third even above-average pitch is huge for Perez’s quest to reach his ace upside; this is still a top-of-the-rotation starter in the making, and Texas has the luxury based on his age and their MLB success to give him all the time he needs. I would like to see him get a full season of AAA next year and nothing more than a cup of coffee. My grade: A-

RHP Alexander Perez – CLE A+ - Perez just turned 21 and showed both strong command and a close to 9 K/9 in between low and high A last season. Unfortunately, he has made only two appearances this season due to a shoulder injury I’m having trouble finding much information on. He’s still an intriguing sleeper and someone I’d rather have than the very late pick his roster spot would free up, but this is a lost year for him. My grade: C+

RHP Adys Portillo – SD A- – The #2 international signing next to Michael Ynoa in whatever year that was (2008?), Portillo has moved up to the Northwest League, where he is again a three-true outcomes pitcher: strikeouts, groundouts, and plenty of walks. I haven’t heard an updated scouting report on him in a while and need to find one. Portillo turns 19 – in December. He is another pitcher in the Mendez/Martinez-Mesa mold: lots of stuff and talent, but it remains to be seen how much he will develop it. But he has years and years to do so. Obviously, my system has tilted a little heavily towards these multiyear projects, and it’s something I will likely get away from a bit in the coming draft. For now, I’ll hope that Portillo can build on his 8.49 K/9 and 51.9 GB%, both impressive marks given his ARL and background, and hope that he can begin to address the control issues with a promotion to full-season ball next season. My grade: C+/B-

RHP Dae-Eun Rhee – CHC A+ - Rhee is 21 and coming back from TJ, so I can’t be dissatisfied with the solid if unspectacular year he’s put together. His 50.3 GB% and strong command are both plusses, but the low K rate (5.55) certainly is a red flag. There have been durability concerns about Rhee before – I think these are a little premature since he is just coming back from the surgery, but I do wonder if he doesn’t fit better in the pen. That said, if everything comes together, he could be a solid mid-rotation starter some day. My grade: C+/B-

3B Edinson Rincon – SD A – Let’s get one thing out of the way: NOT a third baseman. Errors don’t mean much, but my god he is not good at the hot corner. So you have to accept that Rincon is a bat-first prospect who fits at 1B/LF/DH to appreciate him. The reasons to be high on Rincon are pretty simple – he shows an advanced approach for a 19-year-old Dominican in his first taste of full-season ball, and as some of his doubles turn into home runs, he could break out in a year or two once he gets a taste of the Cal and Texas Leagues. He’s got a long road ahead of him but has had some poor luck with balls in play this year and I like his secondary skills at the plate. My grade: B-, but I could see him becoming a bat-first B+ someday if his bat truly breaks out.

OF Trayvon Robinson – LAD AA – I wasn’t huge on Robinson when I drafted him, but he was someone who I thought I’d be a lot more excited about once I saw him produce outside of the Cal League. He’s shown last year’s breakout was legitimate with a huge year in AA Chattanooga, batting .305/.393/.457 with gradual month-by-month improvement. He could be a Curtis Granderson-type at the big league level, a centerfielder who adds value with his defense, speed, and doubles power, and who walks enough to offset some lofty strikeout totals (relative to the kind of prototypical leadoff/CF type). Robinson turns 23 in September and I’m excited to see him in AAA and on the shuttle next season. My grade: B

RHP Madison Youninger – BOS A- - Very, very raw pitcher with a ton of upside. Hits 97 and sits 94-95 with his four-seamer, and adds a two-seamer, curveball, and changeup, all of which have late break and life. Got a $975K bonus to sign as an overslot 7th round pick, and the 19-year-old has huge upside if he can clean up his mechanics and delivery. Again, will require a lot of time, but if/when things click, he has everything in the toolbox to be a dominant starting pitcher. My grade: B-
_________________
Season 4 Sparky Anderson Wild Card
Season 5 Sparky Anderson Division Title
Season 6-7 Earl Weaver Champion
Season 8: Sometimes you'd like to understand what's going through my head

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

[WrenFGun]

I think you're a bit high on a lot of these guys, mostly the ones that are B-. I'd have guys like Younginger, Portillo, Rhee, Mendez as C+ types.

I think Lars is a bit high and I think Beltre is closer to a B- than a B+, though can't argue with the tools. I think a B is really high for Owens, too. I think he's more like a B-/C+ type.

Plenty of interesting players there, though.

[rswanzey]

I think those are all mostly fair criticisms - I should note that I prefer to give guys a boost up for projection or impact potential, with the basic understanding in my head that any of these guys are liable to flame out somewhere at some point, or get hurt. The one thing I don't like about Sickels' grading system is that it loads up the C+ category with impact, toolsy talent and a bunch of bench/middle reliever safe floor/low ceiling types. To me, those players aren't exactly comparable, so I adjust for that a bit. I also think that in general, guys I can project as regulars (even if merely average - a la Lars, Owens) who are producing in the high minors deserve credit, though I'm not saying it should completely outweigh tools/scouting reports (e.g. why you don't see McKenry as a B- compared to a C+).
_________________
Season 4 Sparky Anderson Wild Card
Season 5 Sparky Anderson Division Title
Season 6-7 Earl Weaver Champion
Season 8: Sometimes you'd like to understand what's going through my head

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

[rswanzey]

Also, I think Beltre is a low-end B+, but a B- would be criminal. He's in the midst of a legitimate breakout IMHO. I thought seeing him as a top 100 guy was pretty much consensus at this point? I understand that doesn't necessarily make him more than a weak to mid-range B, but just saying..
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Season 4 Sparky Anderson Wild Card
Season 5 Sparky Anderson Division Title
Season 6-7 Earl Weaver Champion
Season 8: Sometimes you'd like to understand what's going through my head

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

[vomass]

[rswanzey]