Thursday, December 14, 2006

More Matsuzaka

This article on fox sports puts the payout structure of the Matsuzaka deal at:

Matsuzaka gets a $2 million signing bonus, $6 million next year, $8 million in each of the following three seasons and $10 million in each of the final two years.

Using the good old HP12c calculator which has gotten me through many tough nights has puts the NPV at $92m.

More projections:
Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system checks him in at: 186 innings, 3.44 ERA.
Nate Silver's Pecota system checks him in at: 187 innings, and 4.01 ERA.
Chone Smiths's Chone systen checks him in at: 187 innings, 3.46 ERA.

Dan and Chone's projections are damn close. Even Nate has the innings the same, but the ERA is half a run higher. However, keep in mind Pecota is generally more conservative on pitchers AND he estimates Boston, in the AL, in 2007 is a pretty tough place to hit. For example - Nate also projected these star pitchers in Fenway, in the AL in 2007 and came up with these ERA's:

Chris Carpenter, 3.95
Carlos Zambrano, 4.08
Roy Oswalt, 4.20
Barry Zito, 4.96

Also, former major league 3b Mike Pagliarulo, who runs a scouting service specifically dealing with Far East talent said this in a Boston Globe article today:

"In the end the Red Sox have given Matsuzaka a very fair contract," Pagliarulo said. "The Red Sox probably could have saved themselves some money, but I think their offer was a fair gesture of good will given the quality of the player.

"And that's not to disrespect Scott Boras because I respect what he's done for players so much. It's not that Mr. Boras had no leverage. He had the leverage of having a very good player and talent that the Red Sox really wanted to sign. I wasn't privy to any of the negotiations so I don't know what took place. But in the end I think common sense prevailed based on what's in place for a posted player."

Pagliarulo has watched Matsuzaka closely the past few years. "I only scouted him when the proper matchups were in place," he said. "If you're scouting him haphazardly against any hitter or team, you're wasting your time. I wanted to see how he reacted against top hitters and I analyzed his strikes in the strike zone. The thing about him is he wants the baseball. He wants to pitch in the biggest stage and in the biggest game.

"If you beat him, he's not fazed by that. He comes right back at the next hitter. He's a winner. He's tough kid on the mound and I think that should translate very well to the majors."

But will he struggle at first?

"He's a rookie," Pagliarulo said. "He's going to go through his growth spurts. But this is a kid who adjusts very quickly. The major leagues is different than the Japanese leagues, but he has command of his pitches and that should get hitters out anywhere."

Labels: , ,