Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Mets Zips projections

Dan Szymborski has posted his Mets projections at BBTF.

Here are the outliers relative to Chone projections:

First Last Chone OPS ZIPS OPS Difference Abs

Michael Tucker* 0.67 0.732 0.062 0.062

Moises Alou 0.807 0.856 0.049 0.049

Paul Lo Duca 0.75 0.707 -0.043 0.043

Jose Reyes# 0.763 0.802 0.039 0.039

Ramon Castro 0.724 0.686 -0.038 0.038

Chris Woodward 0.65 0.62 -0.03 0.03

Edgardo Alfonzo 0.686 0.659 -0.027 0.027

Julio Franco 0.7 0.721 0.021 0.021

Anderson Hernandez# 0.615 0.594 -0.021 0.021
Why is this important? Because it shrinks our sample size of players to be concerned with. For example, both Chone and Zips project almost exactly the same results for Beltran and Wright so both think they will each be .860 and 900 OPS players respectively. If they turn out to be .800 and .970 OPS players they both are missing the mark. By focusing on just these guys it's easier to eyeball the accuracy.

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